A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Both writes two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
